Climate model to predict malaria outbreaks in India

Scientists from the University of Liverpool’s School of Environmental Sciences are working with computer modelling specialists from C-MMACS in India to predict areas of the country that are at most risk of malaria outbreaks, following changes in monsoon rainfall. The number of heavy rainfall events in India has increased over the past 50 years, but research has tended to focus on the impact this has on agriculture rather than the vector-borne diseases, such as malaria and Japanese encephalitis. The model could help inform early intervention methods to prevent the spread of malaria at key points in the seasonal monsoon cycle, reducing the economic and health impacts of the disease. It is already known that an anomalous season of heavy rainfall, when heat and humidity are high, allows mosquitoes to thrive and spread infection to humans. In order to prepare health services and prevent epidemics there is need for a way of predicting when these events are likely to occur in areas that are not accustomed to annual outbreaks of malaria. C-MMACS is rapidly developing its computer modelling capabilities using technology that can address the impacts of climate variability on agriculture and water systems. This knowledge, together with the Liverpool models of vector-borne diseases, will help develop systems to predict when changes in the monsoonal rain may occur and which areas are most likely to see an increase in malaria.

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